You already know your revenue. You don't know what was available.
For each battery you own: what it actually captured, against what the same published prices would have paid a perfect operator at that node, with that asset's own power and duration — and what the gap is worth in dollars a year.
No forecast is involved. Nothing has to be predicted for the gap to exist.
Why a fleet average will not answer this
Measured across 284 operating ERCOT batteries over the seven months to June 2026, the best-run tenth earned 4.5× what the worst-run tenth did — same market, same hours, the same published prices. Hold vintage constant and it is 3.2×, which is the figure worth underwriting against.
Neither number tells you where your assets sit, because the ceiling is specific: it depends on the prices at your node, your power rating and your duration. An asset that looks poor against the fleet may be close to its own ceiling, and one that looks comfortable may be leaving the most on the table. That is the whole reason to do this per asset.
- Per asset, not per fleet. One capture figure for each battery, at its own node.
- Against a ceiling you can argue with. Perfect foresight on the prices that actually cleared — a ranking, never a target.
- From ERCOT's own disclosure. Every input is public and every figure traces to a dated entry in our findings register.
- With the limitations stated. Including the ones that weaken the result.
Request received.
We will come back to you directly. If you named specific assets we will have the capture figures with us when we do.
What this does not include
This is a revenue-side analysis built on ERCOT's published record. It does not include capex, O&M, financing, degradation cost or a price you should pay for an asset — none of that is in ERCOT's data, and we would rather say so than model it badly.
Resource-level disclosure is also roughly sixty days lagged. That rules out anything real-time and does not touch a structural measurement. And we do not forecast prices: we tried four times and failed four times, which is published.
Research by Vantage, measured on the NodalAlpha platform from ERCOT's own published disclosure. Figures on this page are measured over the seven months to June 2026 and move as the window extends.